China Ferronickel Imports Fall 7% in H1 2026 as Indonesia Supply Tightens
China imported 5.08 million tons of ferronickel in the first half of 2026, down 7%, while June arrivals fell 27% year on year.
China ferronickel imports declined as weak seasonal stainless steel demand combined with tighter Indonesian resource availability. Imports reached 5.08 million tons during January–June, compared with a higher volume in the same period of 2025.
June arrivals fell more sharply to 756,000 tons, down 16.92% from May and 27% year on year. Therefore, the monthly data showed a faster contraction than the six-month total.
Import and market data at a glance
| H1 2026 total imports | 5.08 million tons, down 7% |
| H1 imports from Indonesia | 4.90 million tons, down 8.1% |
| June total imports | 756,000 tons |
| June imports from Indonesia | 727,000 tons |
| LME nickel reference | US$17,234/ton on July 22 |
Mill maintenance reduced short-term demand
Chinese stainless steel mills scheduled maintenance during the June off-season. Consequently, lower 300-series production reduced purchases of ferronickel and nickel pig iron.
Demand may recover modestly after maintenance ends. However, mills are unlikely to rebuild raw material inventories aggressively unless stainless steel orders and margins also improve.
Indonesian controls limit available export volume
Indonesia tightened mining approvals to manage oversupply and support nickel prices. Meanwhile, some local smelters shifted production toward nickel matte for the battery supply chain. As a result, less ferronickel was available for shipment to China.
This policy direction creates a supply concentration risk because Indonesia provided almost all Chinese imports during the period. TISCO’s analysis of the Indonesian nickel policy impact explains the wider cost implications.
Implications for Chinese stainless steel exporters
Lower ferronickel arrivals may reduce pricing flexibility for Chinese producers when 300-series output recovers. Therefore, exporters should avoid fixing long-validity quotations without matching raw material coverage.
Export mills and traders should also separate nickel-sensitive products from lower-nickel grades. Offers for 304 stainless steel coil and 316L stainless steel coil may react faster than ferritic grades because nickel represents a larger share of alloy cost.
Advice for customers importing steel from China
Overseas buyers should not assume that lower raw material imports will immediately raise finished-steel prices. Weak summer demand and existing inventories may still support competitive export offers.
Nevertheless, August and September buyers should monitor quotation validity and mill lead times. In addition, they should confirm nickel basis, molybdenum premiums, origin, surface finish and Mill Test Certificate requirements before comparing offers.
Suggested Buying Action
Secure essential August and September 300-series quantities in stages.
Request a clear quotation validity period and alloy-price basis.
Compare 304, 304L, 316L and lower-nickel alternatives only after technical review.
Confirm finish, thickness tolerance, coil weight, origin and Mill Test Certificate.
Track LME nickel, Indonesian approvals and Chinese stainless steel mill restarts together.
Outlook: demand may recover, but supply growth remains limited
Overall, ferronickel demand may improve slightly as Chinese mill maintenance ends. However, Indonesian resource controls and production shifts should prevent a rapid return to strong import growth.
Therefore, the near-term market may combine firmer raw material costs with cautious stainless steel demand. Export prices could remain competitive, although mills may shorten offer validity if nickel costs rise.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did China’s ferronickel imports fall in H1 2026?
Imports declined because Chinese stainless steel mills reduced off-season production, while Indonesian mining restrictions and production shifts limited ferronickel availability.
Will lower ferronickel imports raise Chinese stainless steel export prices?
Lower imports may reduce mills’ pricing flexibility for 300-series stainless steel, although weak demand and existing inventories may limit immediate price increases.
Should overseas stainless steel buyers order now?
Buyers with confirmed August or September demand can secure essential quantities in stages while comparing alloy costs, quotation validity and delivery schedules.
Related products and nickel market analysis
Official and technical reference links
General Administration of Customs of China | Indonesia ESDM — RKAB Policy | London Metal Exchange — Nickel | Nickel Institute | World Stainless Association
© tiscoco.com | Stainless steel market insights and procurement analysis. Trade and price information reflects publicly available reporting as of 22 July 2026. The LME reference does not directly represent ferronickel or finished stainless steel prices.